Lansana Conte: Old man and the sea

There’s a part of me that has to hand it to Lansana Conte and his henchmen in Guinea Conakry. Like Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea, he’s used his country’s wealth – in his case minerals like bauxite and uranium – to tell Western governments, international community, various NGOs and their finger-waving ways to bugger off.

What interests me here is not another round of quotes full of fire and brimstone from Conte himself, who like Mugabe is appears to be nothing short of politically brilliant and even more so when the castle walls appear to be crumbling down around him. In sports, they call that good play in the clutch. But this isn’t a game: As evil genius as this stuff may be, it’s never pretty to watch – somebody has to clean up after these guys – and I suppose a million times less thrilling to live through.

It’s an old cliché, of course, but this is another story of “persevering” West Africans who get by with very little in a very rich state mismanaged by malignant rulers. While this narrative may sound familiar to regular followers of Nigeria – the poster child of the resource curse – and perhaps those in Gabon, it’s not how the press usually tabs Guinea.

The more I think about it, then, perhaps there’s more to this Guinea-Zimbabwe axis than a simple comparison. We’re talking a deep history here. At least until the 1950s. Even with all his faults and susceptibility into a cult-of-personality-style fascism, most anyone will look beyond the faults of Sékou Touré, the one African independence-era leader who had the cojones to tell Charles de Gaulle where he could stick his colonies and his French-controlled African currency.

But today’s Lansana Conte is no Sekou Toure of yesterday. While the public hangings may have been cute during the Cold War, it doesn’t have to happen in this day and age. Or so we tell ourselves. And, that’s most likely the rub: Governance indicators are now all the rage; Even institutions like the World Bank are on hand to prod leaders to at least present a nice face in front of their populace. But for Conte and his henchmen, life continues pretty much apace.

Looking at the granular lives of Guineans, you have to wonder whether the last four generations only concentrated on getting by while these leaders with airy, global ideas of revolution and grievances of “Western neocolonialism” went about their business. I am guessing here, but things most likely worked for most people as long as the demands of the populace – functioning schools, acceptable medical facilities, maybe some traffic lights – happen to coincide with those of the ruling class. The problem starts when these humble requests become somehow at odds with that same ruling class. Which has pretty much been the case in Guinea on and off for the past few years.

At this moment, it would be offensive to rub peoples’ nose in it, but one has to ask: People of Guinea, after 23 years in power, you didn’t really think that Conte was serious about “democracy” and “good governance” and “political legitimacy” did you?

Those of us who like to paint with broad strokes, it’s easy to claim that every government in West Africa is either evil, corrupt, incompetent or just plain morally broke. The poor saps who happened to be born outside the statehouse, on the other hand, do what they can to get by. For some of us, this simple understanding is what makes West Africa fun. For others, that’s when the dizzying narratives of foreigners become too much: they all have the same atmosphere of living in a strange zoo or at some twisted social experiment. So be it.

In Burkina, there’s been a lot of talk about Nigerians and Congolese, two of the most “industrious” people on the continent. These are the folks who make the most of out nothing because their governments are so inhumanely flawed and cynical that they can get away without providing the most fundamental of service. I have a friend who claims political change boils down to responsibility, and most West Africans, completely lack the necessary gumption. More so, they lack the guts, he says, the courage to stand up and say something, anything, to their collective governments and hold them accountable for their rule. And let’s be honest, there’s a lot better, less brutal governments than the Conte regime.

Here in Burkina Faso, it was Blaise Compaore who carried the 2005 Presidential election with 80 percent of the vote, an “electoral spanking” as his erstwhile campaign chief proclaimed. Just three years later, it’s the same Compaore who’s being blamed for turning his back on his people as food prices – and other goods – climbed an average 40 percent in the opening months of 2008. The question my friend asks: Blaise has spent 20 years in power; did Burkinabé think he was going to change and start caring about them? A bit skeptical, I admit: it’s improbable. He says: Exactly.

People here sold their votes for a t-shirt, he says. And he may be right about that – Blaise did hand out many nicely minted souvenirs. Now they are mad at another supposed do-nothing, care-nothing president. But what did they expect when they’ve never really held him to any of his promises. Come to think about it, I don’t remember Blaise making any promises. He just came out and implied that he’d offer more of the same – poverty, yes; but a tangible amount of stability and the suggestion of a working government. And you know what: These things are important. Perhaps I’ve been here too long, but the only thing people here say that’s somewhat truthful: Poverty is so bad here only God can cure it. So why not vote for more material and secular needs like ethnic tranquility and law and order? The people of Guinea Conakry would love to.

Hold on to your hats: Strikes considered in Guinea

From IRIN, with a new fresh page design, replete with maps (go check it out):

Guinea’s powerful trade union groups are considering whether to go ahead with a general strike at the end of March and risk a government crackdown, like the ones that occurred in January and February 2007 which led to the deaths of up to 200 civilians.

“We are continuing consultations for a successful outcome of the crisis,” said Raibatou Serah Diallo, the secretary general of the National Confederation of Guinean Workers.

Unionists last threatened to strike in January 2008, claiming President Lansana Conté was breaking the power-sharing agreement that brought an end to last year’s violence.

Guineans have endured four union-led strikes in last 15 months to protest high food prices, worsening living conditions, corruption and President Conté’s leadership.

The groups – tell me if you’ve heard this before – are upset about the slow pace of reforms in the country and the stalled investigations regarding 2007’s violence against civilians and “more information on the misappropriation of public funds.”

As in January, however, it appears at least some of the government is willing to delay a strike through negotiations.

The unwritten epitaph on a tyrant

When he laughed, respectable senators burst with laughter,
And when he cried the little children died in the streets.
-- W H Auden

I posed a half-baked anthropomorphic theory sometime ago that went like this: Countries cannot but help but embody some of the characteristics of their leaders. I’d like to reprise that, but first let me start on a different path: the economy.

If the state of the economy is mostly tied up in base gut feelings and emotions and – dare we say it – mood swings, this theory can’t be anymore than half wrong. Think about it. Personal spending and family debt and the ideas of wealth are often tied up in how well one feels about his or her place in the economy and those prospects for the immediate future. Where do people get these cues? From ourselves? Surely. But others, too: our neighbors and peers? Maybe. I can’t help but think our leaders project these feelings. If a leader mimics confidence (and irrational exuberance), why should people not follow suit and go out to buy that third car?

Now, in richer countries, people are often privy to what their leaders do for fun or where they go to relax. In poorer countries – where the personal wealth of leaders are, um, a closely guarded secret – vacations and personal hobbies are best not discussed. It may also be that those richer countries want a chief they can somehow relate to. In West Africa, I’ll argue most people strive for heads of state who will fight for their rights, whether on the domestic front or in the international court.

But let’s get back to the traits of leaders being represented throughout the populace. Good leaders – or at least populist leaders – take specific cues from their people and change their habits accordingly. That’s what makes them popular: everyone sees a little of themselves in these leaders. For example, how did difficult was it for Cubans in the early 1960s to not feel a little more feisty and run out and purchase fatigues? What happens when the calendars begin turning over and people still find these aged leaders in power? Do their subjects still hold that same feelings for them? Do they emulate their senior citizen president as they once looked up to the young upstart?

It’s easy to say that power does strange thing to people. It must be unnerving when the trappings of power makes tapping into that psyche of a people difficult and nearly impossible. It’s hard to hear the cries of the street from the State House. Honestly, when did Castro lose his feel for Cubans? 1971? 1981? At what point does Hugo Chavez become a caricature?

Don’t cry for me, Guinea
It seems I always return to this theme when I am trying to figure out what it must be like to live in a country like Guinea. President Lansana Conte has been in power long enough to not know any better. Last year’s groundswell of opposition that rose against his sclerotic regime is well documented. But the old man stayed on, and the reasons for his continuing grasp of power are also well documented.

Now, the international press may highlight the extremes of Guinea. But the reality on the street may not be so intense, and life around the country may continue pretty much apace. But in the courtyards of their hearts and minds, Guineans must still have a general unease over what is going to happen at the top levels of their government. How can they not?

Conte can’t play magician and puppet master forever. Even if he has been reduced to being a mere puppet, his body may do him in before his masters do. With this in mind, though, it appears he is still winning the battle over the soul of his nation. At the one year anniversary mark of the peoples’ choice for Prime Minister – a condition for calling off last year’s bloody general strikes – it appears the man supposedly in charge has little relevance in today’s Guinea.

From Reuters:

Critics say little has changed in the impoverished West African country, which still suffers soaring prices, persistent electricity blackouts and endless intrigue surrounding President Lansana Conte, a diabetic chain smoker in his 70s.

Even more galling for families of 137 people killed in the 2007 strike -- most shot dead by Conte's police -- an official inquiry into their killings has yet to get off the ground.

…

Conte's presidency, which critics say is controlled by a small loyalist clique, has chipped away at [Prime Minister Lansana] Kouyate's authority.

A December presidential decree reassigning control of government business to a Conte ally was overturned only after Kouyate went to meet the ailing president. Days later Conte replaced Kouyate's information minister with another ally, prompting angry protests on the streets of the capital Conakry.

With the economy once again stumbling along for this mineral-rich country and people complaining of the water and power cuts, the trade unions have planned a general strike for March 31.

The good thing about these national myths is every country has more than a handful to go around. At one point, Lasana Conte may have personified stability, a trait Guineans may have desired back in 1984. Now that his time has definitely come, it will be interesting to see if anyone can pick up a new mantle for Guinea. The country is certainly ripe for change. And, my guess, so are its people.

Wag the child: In Guinea, who's exploiting who?

Literature Review is an occasional series investigating how the Western press covers an African country or issue.

Child exploitation, slavery and trafficking are all serious problems in West Africa. I should know. I am most likely guilty of it.

For the past four years, my wife and I have employed a maid who has then taken a girl from her village and hired her to do some of the housework she can’t get to while she’s cleaning and cooking for us. Our maid claims this is right (in her eyes) by sending the girl to night school and supplementing her income by teaching her to weave, an art form that she can make a lot of money in the future. By taking these girls out of the village, our maid has always claimed she is making life better for the “bonne” who would most likely be married off by now and not have the chance to go to school.

Is that human trafficking? Most likely. Is it a bad thing? I don’t know. Is it part of Burkinabé culture? Surely.

Don’t get me wrong, child exploitation is a problem here. The little girls who walk from bar to bar at night selling boiled peanuts most likely were trafficked from their villages. Ditto for the young boys spending all day in the blinding sun selling Chinese junk.

But after reading a recent story from IRIN about abandoned children being sold into slavery, I have to wonder if the children are the only people being exploited. The story documents anecdotes from residents of Conakry, Guinea who have noticed a significant increase of children living on the streets. Predictably, IRIN spoke to a few kids they found digging through garbage who related that their parents had died and life with their often violent grandmother became too unbearable. So they left.

The UN-based news organization then provides some context.

From IRIN:

Manimam Condé, who coordinates between the Guinean government and the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) in Forecariah (city in southern Guinea), said unwanted children had reason to be afraid: Traffickers solicited children's parents and guardians, promising to give them a better life but actually putting them to work - or worse.

"Some children are sold and others are put directly to work - sent to work on plantations, or to sell things [carrying them] on their heads in markets," she told IRIN

Some children are... sent to work on plantations or to sell things... Sometimes parts of children are used as sacrificial offerings for ceremonies

"You also have sales of organs and body parts for medical uses. Sometimes parts of the children are used as sacrificial offerings for ceremonies."

According to the Conakry-based non-governmental organisation (NGO), Action Contre l'Exploitation des Enfants et des Femmes (ACEEF - Action Against the Exploitation of Children and Women), tens of thousands of unwanted children like these in Guinea are being forced to work in slave-like conditions.

Maybe I am completely inured to the problem of poor Guineans (or West Africans for that matter), but something about this story doesn’t seem right. Red flag number one would be the statement that “tens of thousands” of Guinean children work like slaves. That’s an awful lot of children. To insure there is not a dry eye in the house, the story also references the age-old myth of trafficking in human organs. I’ll admit, from time to time you do hear stories in Ouagadougou of people using organs for some weird fetish, but it often is used to blame Nigerians for something. The problem with using body parts for fetishes is that the bodies usually show up (like they did in Ouagadougou). The story makes no reference to that.

The bottom line is I can’t help shaking the fact that these children are targets – targets of another international organization fudging facts to push the dial of sentiment up to 11 regarding an already serious and sad problem.

Data-free research?
If one wants to investigate the problem of child trafficking, how about looking through some data. Each year, the US government ranks individual countries on the extent of the problem of human trafficking and the degree which governments attempt to tackle it. Once this information is collated, the State Dept. ranks the countries in a three-tiered system – one being best, three being worst – which they confess weighs more towards government intervention than the actual scope of the problem.

Guinea earns the ranking of a tier-2 country, which the State dept. admits is set aside for “[g]overnments that are making significant efforts to meet the minimum standards.” So, Guinea gets a C for effort.

Taking a look at the country narratives from the report, the problem in Guinea is severe:

Guinea is a source, transit, and destination country for men, women, and children trafficked for the purposes of forced labor and sexual exploitation. Guinean children are trafficked within the country mainly from impoverished rural areas of Upper and Middle Guinea; girls are trafficked for domestic servitude and sexual exploitation and boys are trafficked for forced labor as street vendors, shoe shiners, beggars, and for forced mine and agricultural labor

The Government of Guinea does not fully comply with the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking; however, it is making significant efforts to do so, despite limited resources. To strengthen its response to trafficking, Guinea should pass legislation prohibiting all forms of trafficking, increase efforts to investigate and prosecute traffickers and rescue victims, with a focus on children subjected to sexual exploitation.

The Government of Guinea continued solid efforts to raise awareness about trafficking during the reporting period. The government contributed funding for some costs associated with an ILO study on the number of children in domestic labor, mining, and street vending, or who are associated with drug or arms sales. The National Committee to Combat Trafficking hosted a workshop in July 2006 to evaluate whether Guinea's national action plan is in compliance with ECOWAS' trafficking guidelines, concluding that it does comply. The government has integrated trafficking-related issues into the primary school curriculum. The Ministry of Defense, through its own child protection office, has developed a 2007 plan to combat child trafficking. The government continued to contribute personnel, vehicles and other travel resources to an intensive national media campaign against trafficking that it launched jointly with UNICEF in 2005.

As harrowing as these descriptions can be, you should try reading through the rest of West Africa’s country reports. I am not trying to belittle the problem of human trafficking, but is it as grave as this story portrays? Even in a chaotic country like Guinea, where the members of Lasnane Conté’s government seem to spend more time keeping their pockets filled – and in power – than tending to the needs of everyday people.

I take you and you and you for my wives
Oh, the story does provide proof of the increase in children trafficking, by lamely blaming the practice of polygamy and a lack of family planning. As for family planning, Guinea does have a high population rate, but less than other fast-growing countries in the neighborhood: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. The culpability of polygamy is also complicated. A few years ago, George Packer wrote a great piece about the collapse of Cote d’Ivoire that investigated why so many people from West Africa immigrated to the country. He found that young people from large, often polygamous families came looking for work because their parents could no longer afford to take care of them. It is a valid argument, although extremely anecdotal.)

AIDS, which creates orphans and puts extreme financial pressure on families, is fingered as another culprit. It would be a more compelling argument if it were not due to Guinea’s relatively low AIDS prevalence and orphan rate.

Of course, Guinea’s economy could be facing shocks from years of government neglect and last year’s general strikes (and violent government reaction) that rocked the entire country. This economic malaise could provide a tipping point for parents on the edge who are forced to make the horrific choice of letting go of their children so they themselves can stay afloat. Traffickers, of course, prey on exactly these situations by making empty promises that they’ll find good jobs for their children. All of this could happen. It’s unlikely to happen at the rate this story suggests.

To be sure, child trafficking is a problem throughout West Africa. However, blowing another one of Africa’s social issues out of proportion is also problematic. It not only perpetuates the stereotype of a helpless continent where life is nasty, brutish and short. Fabricating misery also deters foreign businesses from investing in these countries, providing economies with the essential capital to continue growing.

If this were just a major metropolitan daily newspaper spewing its regular parade of stories on AIDS widows, witch hunts and the like, I would just shrug. But for the United Nations to be so carefree with facts, I have to ask what is more important: Portraying a perplexing issue with some reason and nuance or making sure those development checks from guilty Westerners keep rolling in?

Budget woes could spell troubles for Guinea's election commission

The chair of Guinea-Conakry’s National Independent Electoral Commission complained the organization was not financially prepared to manage this year’s legislative elections.

Sékou Ben Sylla told Afriquenligne, "Up to now, no budget has been allocated to our institution and our offices are not equipped, hence we have to do with our own means", he said, adding that the equipment at CENA, the institution which supervised the last communal polls and which was succeeded by CENI, were not transferred to the CENI as expected.

The budget issues will make it impossible to allow the 25-person staff proper funds to travel and to build a computer system to monitor the results.

So far, this year’s elections for the National Assembly have been twice rescheduled. Sylla hopes for all parties to agree on a date by the end of January.

The Bauxite Question: No WMD, but popular with taggers

We are piggy backing on the previous post on Guinea. You can’t escape the fact that every news story on Guinea always points out that the country is the world’s leading producer of Bauxite. What does that mean? It’s as if Bauxite is an integral element in the fabrication of chemical weapons.

Well, apparently it isn’t. According to the United States Geological Survey, about 85 percent of mined Bauxite is used to make aluminum metal. Here’s the math: Four tons of dried bauxite is required to produce two tons of alumina, which produces one ton of aluminum metal.

Aluminum metal is popular, says the Arkansas Geological Survey, because it is light, has a low melting temperature and when alloyed with other metals, aluminum can become very strong. Aluminum is also easy to work with; it can be forged, rolled, cast, machined to just about anything: paint, beverage cans, baseball bats, airplanes and house siding. It carries high electrical conductivity and is very resistant to corrosion. All this adds up to make aluminum, behind iron and steel, the world’s third most popular metal.

Make that the world’s third most popular metal without significant deposits in the United States or Europe. In 2006, Australia the world’s largest producer of Bauxite, mined roughly 61,400 tons of the mineral, far ahead of Brazil (21,000 tons), China (20,000), Guinea (15,000) and Jamaica (14,000). However, Guinea is believed to posses the greatest amount Bauxite reserves – if the country can only successfully exploit them.

OM: Original Metal
As the USGS points out, it pays to go with the original when making alumina. One could use substitutes – “such as anorthosite, alunite, coal wastes, and oil shales” – but that would require building new plants and utilizing new technology. In the end, Bauxite remains the best choice for those who need their house re-sided. That’s why Guinea remains an important “partner” when its government acts like a bully state.

According to the U.S. Dept. of State, bauxite mining and alumina operations provide an estimated 80 percent of Guinea’s foreign exchange. There is a bit of mining going on. The state owns 51 percent of a joint venture with Alcoa and Alcan in the country’s most productive mine, and the government signed compacts for the construction of alumina refineries.

However, a number of obstacles stand in the way of more foreign investment, says the State Dept: a poorly developed infrastructure, rampant corruption (The 2006 Transparency International Corruption Perception Index ranks Guinea languishing near the bottom at 168 out of 177 countries), continuing political instability (see this post) and a lack of a transparent budgeting process. These red flags are not enough to scare off the Canadian mining firm Alcan from working with local NGOs (in a World Bank sponsored program) to help Guinea achieve the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals.

General strike cancelled in Guinea

General Strikers, go to work. That’s the message heard after a group of Guinean unions met with five government ministers in Conakry and called off their planned general strike set for January 10.

The four unions initially announced their strike January 4 when President Lansana Conté fired communications minister Justin Morel Junior without explanation and replaced him with a close presidential aid.

People rioted in Conakry to protest the firing, burning tires and throwing rocks at cars. One medical student was reported killed after being hit with a rock.

From Agence France Presse:

The unions said in a statement that they "decided to suspend the strike order", laying down a series of measures that should be taken for the sharing of power between the president and prime minister to be respected with a date limit of March 31.

The unions want to "work without delay with the government on amending the decree" of December 5 which gives most powers to the government secretary general to the detriment of the prime minister, who was named by consensus early in 2007.

"We have decided to lift the call for a strike to listen to all those who approached us and all those who support us," said Yomodou Toure, secretary-general of the ONSLG union, saying the four unions calling for the strikes had obtained concessions.

Last year at this time began two months of sometimes violent protests – where upwards of 150 civilians were killed by the military – that paralyzed the country and eventually forced the long-serving president to appoint a reforming Prime Minister. However, a recent Human Rights Watch report claims that Lansana Kouyate, the Prime Minister, enjoys very little actual power.

Guinea troops moving deeper into Sierra Leone?

From The Awareness Times

Guinean troops have reportedly crossed several miles into Sierra Leone from the disputed town of Yenga to transact business in Koindu, a trading centre in Kailahun district which borders with both Liberia and our Guinean neighbours. This development according to reports say many residents of Koindu town are venteing out their anger because of the presence of Guinean troops, which they attribute to the complacence of government in speedily resolving the conflict over Yenga, the very populated border village.

However, the problem goes back to the end of the Sierra Leone civil war. From IPS, from July 2004:

Angry Sierra Leoneans are demanding that their government ask Guinea to withdraw its troops from their territory which they occupied five years ago.

Troops from Guinea occupied the eastern border town of Yenga during Sierra Leone's civil war between the rebels of the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) and government forces.

But, even though the civil war in Sierra Leone has been over for two years now, Guinea has yet to relinquish control of the town - a diplomatic "problem in the making".

If it's January, this must in Guinea (again)

Could things be heating up in Guinea? Unions have called for a general strike on January 10. On Friday, Reuters reports, one person died when youths burned tires and threw rocks at cars in Conakry to protest the firing of Communications Minister Justin Morel Junior.

The ruling party claimed that any strike could drag the country back to chaos as happened last year when six weeks of anti-government demonstrations left more than 100 people killed.

Unions, and Human Rights Watch, claim that President Lansana Conté has violated the power-sharing agreement that ended last year’s protests.

Here’s our primer on the ever-evolving situation in Guinea.

Two changes in the situation: Two newspapers were recently suspended for writing stories on the slow pace of government reform and their reporters barred from working for three months, says the Committee to Protect Journalists.

Secondly, the Reuters story points out that the recent death of General Arafan Camara, a key ally of Conté, has left the president one ally short in the military. Oddly, it was Conté who fired Camara in May after military protests over better working conditions and the rehiring of military leaders involved in a 1996 mutiny.

Reforms still MIA in Guinea

From Voice of America:

In May, [Guinea's] parliament established a commission to investigate the security forces' involvement in January and February's violence. But the members of the commission were named only last month, and they have yet to get funding or even a meeting space.

Thierno Maadjou Sow, president of Guinea's Organization for the Defense of Human Rights, says he does not believe the commission will be allowed to function.

He says some people in Guinea are untouchable.

Government officials could not be reached for comment.

The position of prime minister does not exist in Guinea's constitution. Previous reform-minded prime ministers have been fired by President Conté, and there was no prime minister for nearly a year before Mr. Kouyate was appointed. Mr. Conté has ruled in Guinea since 1984 when he seized power in a coup.

During the January and February protests, he said "It is God who gives power, and when he gives it to someone, everyone must stand behind him."

In Guinea, commission investigating civilian deaths takes the slow lane

The investigation into alleged killings of civilians by Guinean security forces is faltering, says IRIN:

Citizens and international observers are worried that if people's grievances are not addressed then the upcoming anniversary of January's deadly military crackdown could trigger more protests and violence.

At least 137 civilians were allegedly killed by the army and police during unprecedented citizen uprisings in January and February, international rights advocates say. One Guinean human rights group puts the number of civilians killed at at least 230.

The commission into the violence was created in May by a unanimous vote in parliament but the members of the commission have yet to be sworn in and begin their work.

"We do not have much hope that this commission will produce any positive result," Thierno Maadjou Sow, president of Guinea's Organisation of Human Rights (OGDH), told IRIN on 22 November.

"There are people who are implicated who are close to those in power so it is difficult for the justice system here to function properly," he added.

Peace through Strength: A new path for Guinea?

Grand claims are my comfort. West African politics my balm.

For the first time in recent history, we can safely attest that West Africa is home to no rogue states or outlandish bully governments. Sierra Leone and Liberia have cleaned up their acts and are on the way to becoming functioning countries. For the first time in decades, Togo’s leader, while using extra-constitutional means to ascend the throne, is not a bully. Perhaps related to this is the fact that he doesn’t seem to be a close, personal friend of Jacques Chirac. Things are looking up in Burkina Faso and Benin. Ghana and Mali continue to shine. Not so much for Senegal, but time will tell. Bad perceptions outstrip reality in Nigeria. A question mark, admittedly, always hangs over Niger. I never know how to classify Mauritania. Gambia is also iffy. Guinea-Bissau is on the watch list because of oil and drugs. And finally, even Cote d’Ivoire is on the road to cleaning up its house.

The sole country that bucks my wild claim is Guinea. And what a mess it is.

Once upon a time
Follow me on this old, familiar tale. A resource-rich country becomes increasingly money-poor through the misrule of a crusty, old hegemon who leans too heavily on the very people from where he once came: the military.

Guinea’s Lansana Conté ascended power through a military coup in the 1980s. In his first decade of rule, he began clothing himself in more democratic garb, wining a few questionable elections for himself and his party in the 90s and began calling himself President. He hit the jackpot of voter indifference in 2001 when a whopping 98 percent of Guineans decided to do away with presidential term limits and changed the president’s mandate from five to seven-year terms.

For a good part of Conté’s first two decades of power, his rule wasn’t seen as ordinarily harsh or corrupt against the yardstick that is West Africa. In fact, he was seen by some in the international community as a welcoming host to the region’s flowing refugees, rushing in from the wars of Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea-Bissau and the Casamance region of Senegal. He opened the country to foreign investment, allowing international mining firms to excavate the world’s largest reserve of bauxite, the mineral that goes into making aluminum foil.

But as time went on, something dawned on everyone: It appeared the Conté government was incapable – or unwilling – to tackle the country’s mounting problems. For example, the government’s escalating involvement in the civil wars of neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. There was also the Conté regime’s increasing authoritarianism to worry about. To Guineans, however, the inflation rate that hit 250 percent was most on their minds.

“Even mid-ranking civil servants are finding it difficult to make salaries - when paid – stretch,” wrote Andrew Manley in 2006 for BBC Focus on Africa. “And the continual slide of the Guinean franc against the US dollar has been aggravated in recent months, with rich individuals mopping up available dollars and driving the franc's street value down further.”

Just following the Platinum anniversary of his rule, Conté’s health took a turn for the worse. He’s a longtime diabetic, and as the BBC points out, a chain smoker. In 2006 he was hospitalized in Morocco and eventually ended up in Switzerland, giving the impression to Guineans that he would not return to rule. Somehow he did. He made a homecoming to Guinea, but he only seemed to spend his days tucked away in his native village. Behind the scenes, however, the power elite were scrambling for making the best of a post-Conté Guinea.

One could argue that Conté’s illness became a metaphor – and an excuse – for his feeble administration. Guinean standard of living – while never high – fell precipitously. On the other hand, one does not remain in power for more than two decades because a) one is dumb or b) just plain lucky. Oftentimes, it takes more than a metaphor to drive a tyrant from power. And like long-serving leaders everywhere, Conté played opposition politicians like an evil puppeteer.

Enter Ghosts
Something had to give. It was up to the trade unions to begin the battle against Conté and his increasingly corrupt regime. Their method: the general strike. The first, called in June 2006, just months after opposition parties pushed to form an interim government while Conté recovered from illness. The eight-day strike forced the government to increase wages and cap the price of goods.

Conté went missing for his annual Independence Day speech on October 2, feeding rumors of his continued ill health and a vacuum in the highest corridors of power. The country’s economy teetered along. By January 2007 opposition parties and trade unions called for another general strike, setting off nearly two months of violent clashes with the police and military that shocked the entire region.

The strikers spent nearly a month calling for Conté’s resignation. At one point, Conté allegedly cancelled a meeting with opposition party members because they weren’t paying him enough respect. His health – and sanity – was called into question. Eventually, he blinked. In early February, Conté said he would appoint a new Prime Minister, who would help redirect the government’s focus. However, his choice for the post was a member of his inner circle. The announcement merely inflamed the populace.

By mid-February, Conté resurfaced long enough to declare a state of emergency – calling on the military to restore order throughout the country. When the smoke finally cleared on the protests a few weeks later, the balance sheet was horrible: more than 170 people dead and 1,700 wounded.

According to a Human Rights Watch report,

During the six-week crisis, scores of Guineans, many of them mere bystanders to the demonstrations, were severely beaten and robbed at gunpoint by security forces, often in their own homes. Scores of other Guineans, including children, were killed or wounded by undisciplined and reckless fire. This occurred when security forces sprayed bullets into the air and even directly into communities in an apparent attempt to frighten demonstrators to return to or to remain in their homes.

One thing did change, however. Conté agreed to a new consensus Prime Minister, who took power near the end of February.

Hungry like the wolf
My grand sweeping argument centers on the fact that Conté’s wolf-in-democratic-garb routine will eventually catch up with him. As strongmen elsewhere have learned, once you begin using the code words of democracy, you bestow them with the power of your throne.

I refer you to the case of Charta 77 in Czechoslovakia, where a group of dissidents came to hold their government liable for signing the Helsinki Accords in 1975, which in part, promised respect for human rights, freedom of thought, conscience, religion or belief. The ironic part of this tale is that the Helsinki Accords was a document, in retrospect, communist authorities most likely didn’t think twice about signing. (For those Regan apologists out there, the Gipper did not so much end the Cold War as domestic anti-communist dissent within the Soviet Union and its satellite states. But this is an argument for another day.)

Famously, Conté has no choice for a successor. His mandate runs out in 2010, and his health appears to have stabilized for the moment. Unlike the Czechoslovak (or Soviet) regime before, democratic change will most likely take a back seat to the old man’s mortality.

However, don’t think post-Ceauşecu Romania. Six months after so much blood was spilled, the populace continues to walk a fine line. The mood of the country remains grim. A recent report by the International Crisis Group points out: “Although inflation has slowed, initial enthusiasm has been replaced with doubt over the capabilities and will of the new government to break with the Conté system and alleviate daily economic difficulties.”

The obstacles facing the government are numerous (and plainly obvious).

• Restructure the cabinet; appoint people by competence;
• Attempt to end impunity by making resources available to the enfeebled independent commission investigating the response of the security forces towards protesters;
• Open a dialogue with the army, seen here as the “danger,” on reform;
• Evaluate the needs of gendarme and police forces so they can maintain peaceful order;
• France and the U.S. should continue supporting police through training and equipment;
• Donors should fulfill their monetary pledges.

Even with a new “independent” Prime Minister, power still rests in the hands of Conté.

After more than twenty years in power – and two years (and more) of serious opposition – it is Conté who remains the prime obstacle to change. And the bottom line remains: He still runs the country.

Our demands
The IRC calls for free and transparent elections. Also, they push for the new prime minister to “broaden his government’s base” by opening a dialogue with the forces that helped put him there, the trade unions, civil society and other political parties.

The rest of the group’s recommendations could be applied to any other bully state:

If the government – read: Prime Minister – refuses, or cannot, enact a majority of these measures, the crisis may likely return. If so, the IRC claims it could be messier than before.

The logic underscoring the report points to the fact that Conte (and his cronies) is going nowhere. Instead of writing him, and the country, off, IRC claims the rest of the world should take a deep breath and make a quiet peace with the country. The chances of this happening increased a million-fold when the Government of Guinea announced in August the country has commercially viable reserves of uranium. (The Iranians have already made headway.)

More Soviet memories
There’s the old adage that Liberia’s Charles Taylor played the international community off each other and their guilt-ridden incursions into Africa. He knew the game was won when aid groups began asking themselves: How do we help Liberians without the funds going to support that strongman Taylor?

Without fully answering the question, the funds would return – and most likely Taylor would find a way to grab them.

Is Conté that smart? Does he still hold that kind of power? Like the old Kremlinologists before us, viewing an opaque – and irregular – government may be an imprecise art form. But the pay is good. Of course, that’s not a good omen: The Soviet Empire fell away like a sand castle one night and we didn’t know jack.